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So, who is Alexander Green, the man behind Oxford Communique stock newsletters?
Can you really follow his stock recommendations and grow your wealth in the long term?
What are Alexander Green’s stock recommendations?
Most importantly, how have his stock picks performed over the years?
Alexander Green Background
Alexander Green started out in the business as a registered representative in the securities industry in 1985.
Before long, he was writing his firm’s research reports and client communications and managing discretionary accounts.
After 16 years in the money management business, he left to become the Chief Investment Strategist of The Oxford Club and the guy behind the “Oxford Communiqué” newsletters and stock recommendations.
Alexander Green Investment Philosophy
What investing principles does Alexander Green follow?
Alexander Green studied Peter Lynch, John Templeton, and Warren Buffet in his early years in the money management business.
From reading Warren Buffet’s annual letters and listening to John Templeton’s tapes, he learned from them.
All three legendary investors approached the market with the same general philosophy.
That is they didn’t have the slightest clue whether the market was about to go up or down.
Instead, they made their money identifying companies that were trading below their intrinsic value and selling them when the market recognized that value.
Alexander Green agrees with that.
That’s why Alexander Green created the “Gone Fishing” portfolio based on the investment philosophy that nobody knows what the market is likely to do next.
Because no one and no system can accurately and consistently forecast the economy or the financial market.
He also thinks that the most important investment decision is not the stocks they own but the asset allocation they represent.
Your asset allocation is how you divide your portfolio among different imperfectly correlated assets like stocks, bonds, real estate, and precious metals.
Stocks give the greatest return over the long term, but the volatility is also the highest.
Blending stocks with safer and less volatile assets can generate good returns with less volatility.
Here is the breakdown of Alexander Green’s Gone Fishing Portfolio:
- US stocks: 30%
- European stocks: 10%
- Pacific stocks: 10%
- Emerging market stocks: 10%
- Real Estate: 5%
- Golding mining: 5%
- Short-term corporate bonds: 10%
- High-yield bonds: 10%
- Inflation-adjusted Treasury bonds: 10%
To replicate this asset allocation of the Gone Fishing portfolio using ETFs, below is the equivalent ETFs.
So, how did the Gone Fishing Portfolio perform since its inception?
| Year | Gone Fishing Portfolio | S&P 500 |
| 2003 | 32.7% | 28.3% |
| 2004 | 15.3% | 10.95 |
| 2005 | 12% | 4.8% |
| 2006 | 17.1% | 15.6% |
| 2007 | 9.7% | 5.6% |
| 2008 | -31.7% | -36.6% |
| 2009 | 34.4% | 25.9% |
| 2010 | 16.4% | 14.8% |
| 2011 | -3.1% | 2.1% |
| 2012 | 13.5% | 15.9% |
| 2013 | 12.5% | 32% |
| 2014 | 3.9% | 13.5% |
| 2015 | -3.5% | 1.4% |
| 2016 | 11.1% | 11.8% |
| 2017 | 16.4% | 21.6% |
| 2018 | -8.8% | -4.2% |
| 2019 | 20.4% | 31.2% |
| 2020 | 12.8% | 18.4% |
| 2021 | 10.72% | 26.61% |
As you can see, the Gone Fishing portfolio underperformed S&P 500 from 2011 to 2021.
This is due to a few reasons:
- Bond yields all came down significantly during this period of time
- International stocks underperformed the US stocks
- US stocks performed very well with an average annual return of 13.5%
Alexander Green’s Stock Picks For Short-Term Trading
So, what about his individual stock picks?
He regularly makes stock recommendations for short-term trading through its Oxford Communique newsletter.
Personally, I find this contradictory to what he says about his investment philosophy.
Peter Lynch, John Templeton, and Warren Buffet all don’t make their fortunes from doing short-term trading because they know no one can predict the market with 100% certainty.
Anyway, all the current stock recommendations can be found in Alexander Green’s Oxford Trading Portfolio.
If a “Buy” recommendation pulls back to within 5% of its protective 25% trailing stop, they move it to a “Hold.” If the stock resumes its upward climb, we will move it back onto our “Buy” list.
But, if the stock hits the 25% stop loss, then the recommendation becomes “Sell”.
For example, they gave a “Buy” recommendation in May 2022 for the stock “Under Armour” at the buy price of $11.42 with a “25% trailing stop, this stock hits the stop loss.
That means whatever you invested in this stock, you would suffer a loss of 25%.
So, how has this trading portfolio performed?
So far, almost all his six 2022 stock recommendations have hit a 25% stop loss.
For example, his April 2022 stock recommendation is Illumina with an entry price of $349.10.
About one month later, it hit its stop loss of 25%.
His May 2022 stock recommendation is Asana with an entry price of $33.21.
Shortly after, it hit the 25% stop-loss.
Personally, I believe that it’s best to stay from short-term trading in this volatile environment.
Alexander Green’s Ten-Bagger Stock Picks
Alexander Green also recommends highly speculative (i.e. highly risky) stocks with the potential to rise tenfold through his “Ten-Bagger” of Tomorrow Portfolio.
He likes to use his ten-bagger stock picks in its marketing message to get more subscribers to his Oxford Communique newsletter.
I am sure that you might have watched the video called ” The Single-Stock Retirement Play: Here’s Why This $4 Stock Should be the Cornerstone of Your Portfolio” (you could also read the transcriptions if you don’t have time for the video).
After reading his message, I became very curious to find out what Alexander Green’s $4 stock is.
I mean, who doesn’t like the idea of turning $1000 into millions in 10 to 20 years, right?
So, it’s best that you only allocate a very tiny portion of your portfolio to these stocks.
As these high-growth stocks are very risky and volatile, you stand to lose most if not all of your money if the company didn’t do well as expected.
Alexander Green doesn’t recommend any stop-loss for these high-growth stocks, but a sell recommendation will be triggered if a company misses the quarterly consensus revenue estimate by 20% or more – or if the company’s business prospects have changed for the worse in some fundamental way.
So, how have the stock recommendations in this “Ten-Baggers of Tomorrow Portfolio” performed?
As of my writing today (July 2022), I can see there are six stock recommendations with three losing stock picks with a maximum loss of 52.9% and the other three winning stock picks with a maximum gain of 87.8%.
[If you are looking for good high-growth stock picks, I highly recommend that you check out my review of “Rule Breakers“.
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