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So, who is Alexander Green, the man behind Oxford Communique stock newsletters?
Can you really follow his stock recommendations and grow your wealth in the long term?
What are Alexander Green’s stock recommendations?
Most importantly, how have his stock picks performed over the years?
Alexander Green Background
Alexander Green started out in the business as a registered representative in the securities industry in 1985.
Before long, he was writing his firm’s research reports and client communications and managing discretionary accounts.
After 16 years in the money management business, he left to become the Chief Investment Strategist of The Oxford Club and the guy behind the “Oxford Communiqué” newsletters and stock recommendations.
His Oxford Communiqué has been ranked one of the 10 top-performing investment letters in the nation for the last 15 years by Hulbert Financial Digest.
Alexander Green is also the author of four national best-sellers:
- The Gone Fishin’ Portfolio
- The Secret of Shelter Island
- Beyond Wealth
- An Embarrassment of Riches
Alexander Green Investment Philosophy
What investing principles does Alexander Green follow?
Alexander Green studied Peter Lynch, John Templeton, and Warren Buffet in his early years in the money management business.
These three men are three of the best fund managers of all time.
From reading Warren Buffet’s annual letters and listening to John Templeton’s tapes, he learned from them.
All three legendary investors approached the market with the same general philosophy.
That is they didn’t have the slightest clue whether the market was about to go up or down.
Instead, they made their money identifying companies that were trading below their intrinsic value and selling them when the market recognized that value.
Alexander Green agrees with that.
That’s why Alexander Green created the “Gone Fishing” portfolio based on the investment philosophy that nobody knows what the market is likely to do next.
Because no one and no system can accurately and consistently forecast the economy or the financial market.
He also thinks that the most important investment decision is not the stocks they own but the asset allocation they represent.
Your asset allocation is how you divide your portfolio among different imperfectly correlated assets like stocks, bonds, real estate, and precious metals.
Stocks give the greatest return over the long term, but the volatility is also the highest.
Blending stocks with safer and less volatile assets can generate good returns with less volatility.
Here is the breakdown of Alexander Green’s Gone Fishing Portfolio:
- US stocks: 30%
- European stocks: 10%
- Pacific stocks: 10%
- Emerging market stocks: 10%
- Real Estate: 5%
- Golding mining: 5%
- Short-term corporate bonds: 10%
- High-yield bonds: 10%
- Inflation-adjusted Treasury bonds: 10%
To replicate this asset allocation of the Gone Fishing portfolio using ETFs, below is the equivalent ETFs.
So, how did the Gone Fishing Portfolio perform since its inception?
|Year||Gone Fishing Portfolio||S&P 500|
As you can see, the Gone Fishing portfolio underperformed S&P 500 from 2011 to 2021.
This is due to a few reasons:
- Bond yields all came down significantly during this period of time
- International stocks underperformed the US stocks
- US stocks performed very well with an average annual return of 13.5%
Lastly, this portfolio is designed to perform better in a bear market and protect your downside.
Warren Buffet also said that Berkshire Hathaway might not outperform in a bull market, but it would perform much better in a bear market because avoiding permanent loss is one of his key principles.
Below is the risk of ruin table.
As you can see, the more you lose, the harder it gets to just recover your loss.
Given the high inflation and rising interest rate environment, I feel much better to hold this “Gone Fishing” portfolio.
Since this is a long-term diversified portfolio, how it performs against S&P 500 over the next decade remains to be seen.
Alexander Green’s Stock Picks For Short-Term Trading
So, what about his individual stock picks?
He regularly makes stock recommendations for short-term trading through its Oxford Communique newsletter.
All the current stock recommendations can be found in Alexander Green’s Oxford Trading Portfolio.
If a “Buy” recommendation pulls back to within 5% of its protective 25% trailing stop, they move it to a “Hold.” If the stock resumes its upward climb, we will move it back onto our “Buy” list.
But, if the stock hits the 25% stop loss, then the recommendation becomes “Sell”.
In April 2021, it recommended Merke & Co at the buy price of $75.97, the current stock price is at $92.78.
Most of his stock picks in 2021 and 2020 have performed quite well.
During the half of 2022, the market was very bearish and most of his stock picks didn’t do well.
But, as the market recovers, this is expected to change because his Jun stock pick did pretty well with an unrealized gain of about 15% as of my writing today.
Alexander Green’s Ten-Bagger Stock Picks
Alexander Green also recommends highly speculative (i.e. highly risky) stocks with the potential to rise tenfold through his “Ten-Bagger” of Tomorrow Portfolio.
He likes to use his ten-bagger stock picks in its marketing message to get more subscribers to his Oxford Communique newsletter.
I am sure that you might have watched the video called ” The Single-Stock Retirement Play: Here’s Why This $4 Stock Should be the Cornerstone of Your Portfolio” (you could also read the transcriptions if you don’t have time for the video).
After reading his message, I became very curious to find out what Alexander Green’s $4 stock is.
I mean, who doesn’t like the idea of turning $1000 into millions in 10 to 20 years, right?
So, it’s best that you only allocate a very tiny portion of your portfolio to these stocks.
As these high-growth stocks are very risky and volatile, you stand to lose most if not all of your money if the company didn’t do well as expected.
Alexander Green doesn’t recommend any stop-loss for these high-growth stocks, but a sell recommendation will be triggered if a company misses the quarterly consensus revenue estimate by 20% or more – or if the company’s business prospects have changed for the worse in some fundamental way.
So, how have the stock recommendations in this “Ten-Baggers of Tomorrow Portfolio” performed?
As of my writing today (July 2022), I can see there are six stock recommendations with three losing stock picks with a maximum loss of 52.9% and the other three winning stock picks with a maximum gain of 127%.
Overall, its ten-bagger stock recommendations have done pretty well.
Given such a challenging market environment, it’s reassuring to see that Oxford Club really does its research well and makes responsible stock recommendations.
Because I have seen the performance of the high-growth stock picks from other investment letters such as Paul Mampilly’s Profit Unlimited.
The subscribers have seen most of their stocks fall by almost 90% in a span of months and face losses that might never be recovered.
[If you are looking for high-growth companies (i.e. the next 10-bagger or even 50-baggers], I also highly recommend that you check out my review of “Rule Breakers“.]
Alexander Green’s Stock Picks For High Inflation & Rising Interest Rate
The Fortress Portfolio is a new recommended portfolio that was only recently introduced in July 2022.
With inflation running high, supply chain constraints, US-China decoupling, and regional conflicts, it’s wise to build a “fortress” to protect your wealth from being eroded by inflation.
When I first saw this “Fortress Portfolio”, I was saying to myself that this is exactly what investors like you and me need to have in times like this.
This portfolio is made up of eight sector funds, each carefully selected to handily outpace inflation while providing complete security and peace of mind.
It requires no economic forecasting, no market timing, no stock selection, and no political punditry.
Also, it will protect your hard-earned money against inflation, recession, rising interest rates, stagflation, weak markets, and even geopolitical conflict.
Inside the “Fortress Portfolio”, there are no unprofitable companies, small-cap stocks, and interest-rate-sensitive bonds, as well as crazy speculations like SPACs, NFTs, and crypto.
There is no individual security risk.
Each sector fund offers broad diversification.
This strategy avoids the pitfall of being in the right sector but the wrong stock.
If you are thinking about putting together a safe and inflation-protected portfolio, then you should definitely consider Fortress Portfolio.